Reevaluating the notion of abiogenesis, a fresh perspective emerges on the probability of life's emergence on Earth-like planets. Commonly held beliefs posit that Earth's existence can't inform us about abiogenesis elsewhere due to a selection bias. This Carter argument, formulated by Brandon Carter, has been challenged, revealing intriguing insights.
The crux of the argument lies in the "Old Evidence Problem" in Bayesian Confirmation Theory, suggesting that our existence itself shapes our observations. Contrary to conventional understanding, the presence of life on Earth may not be neutral evidence. Rather, it could indicate that abiogenesis on Earth-like planets is more feasible than previously thought.
Furthermore, an independent timescale argument quantifies the probabilities, showing that the timescale for abiogenesis is likely shorter than the planetary habitability span. Consequently, the rarity of abiogenesis on Earth-like planets is called into question.
By challenging established paradigms, this study unveils a more nuanced stance on abiogenesis. As our understanding deepens, we inch closer to comprehending the likelihood of life's emergence across the cosmos, offering insight into the broader tapestry of existence beyond Earth.
